ABSTRACT
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled effects of 6 weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (R t ) in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors. Methods: Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. R t values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a Unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May - December 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted. Findings: Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 R t . Days with radiation above 1,000 KJ/m2 saw a 1.3%, and those with humidity above 50%, a 0.9% reduction in R t . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with least population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of R t variance. Interpretation: Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase, and higher solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures. Funding: NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Ethnic minorities have higher rates of infection, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19 compared to White Americans. RESEARCH QUESTION: Is race/ethnicity an independent predictor of lung dysfunction following hospitalization with COVID-19? STUDY DESIGN: and Methods: Patients hospitalized at the University of Virginia Medical Center with COVID-19 underwent a questionnaire within 30 days following discharge. Those who had persistent respiratory symptoms were invited to complete spirometry, lung volumes, and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide. 128 completed pulmonary function testing at 6 months. RESULTS: Impairments in lung function were present in spirometry, lung volumes, and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide at 6 months. The most prevalent impairments were noted in FVC (24.4%), FEV1 (20.5%), TLC (23.3%), and DLCO (20.8%). When compared between race/ethnicity groups three lung function parameters demonstrated statistically significant difference, including FEV1/FVC (p = 0.021), RV/TLC (p = 0.006) and DLCO % predicted (p = 0.002). The average difference between Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black patients with respect to DLCO % predicted was 13.09 (p = 0.01) and the average difference between non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black patients was 9.46 (p = 0.04). Differences persisted when controlling for age, BMI, smoking status, history of chronic lung disease, ICU admission, treatment with corticosteroids, and socioeconomic status. INTERPRETATION: Long-term impairments in lung function following COVID-19 are common, occurring in roughly 22% of patients and across all three major domains of lung function. Non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity was associated with a statistically significant lower DLCO % predicted when compared to non-Hispanic White and Hispanic patients.